Air Transport: The Impact of Sustainable Fuels on Global Logistics

The implementation of sustainable fuels faces regulatory challenges and high costs that test the aviation sector. With stricter environmental regulations and increasing market demand to reduce emissions, airlines and logistics companies are accelerating their transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). According to the World Economic Forum’s Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2025, 80% of SAF purchase agreements have been signed by commercial airlines, while the remaining 21% belongs to cargo carriers, logistics companies, and aerospace manufacturers.

The adoption of these fuels is transforming the operations of air logistics, creating new dynamics in supply, costs, and certifications that ensure the traceability of biofuels. "Collaborations throughout the aviation value chain are essential to expand SAF production and distribution," stated Gene Gebolys, CEO of a biofuel company, in the report.

Regulations and International Agreements

The development of environmental regulations is also a determining factor in the expansion of SAF. In the European Union, the Emissions Trading System (ETS) will include nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, particulate matter, and water vapor in its monitoring and carbon footprint reduction system starting in 2025. This has led airlines and logistics operators to redefine their fuel sourcing strategies.

On the other hand, China, the world's leading supplier of used cooking oils for SAF production, reached a peak in exports in November 2024, with significant shipments to Europe and the United States. However, the removal of a 13% tax rebate for the export of these inputs could disrupt the market dynamics. Similarly, Indonesia has tightened controls on the export of palm effluents and recycled oils, prioritizing their use in the domestic market.

Costs and Competitiveness

The growing demand for SAF has intensified competition among regions to secure the supply of this fuel or its raw materials. Latin America, particularly Brazil, has established itself as a key supplier due to its production of sugarcane and soybeans. Meanwhile, Europe faces the need to relax its eligibility criteria for inputs to avoid supply issues.

For the logistics industry, this situation implies an adjustment in transportation costs. Despite incentives to encourage the use of sustainable fuels, the price of SAF remains significantly higher than conventional fuel. In this context, it is expected that airlines will pass on part of these costs to logistics operators and, ultimately, to consumers.

Challenges and Prospects

The year 2025 will mark a turning point in the adoption of SAF and its influence on global logistics. While uncertainties remain regarding the availability of raw materials and price stability, the World Economic Forum report emphasizes the importance of coordinated policies and strategic partnerships between governments, businesses, and international organizations to consolidate a sustainable transition in the aviation sector.

In this scenario, the adaptability of logistics companies will be a key factor in maintaining competitiveness in an increasingly regulated market with higher environmental demands. As the aviation industry moves toward a more sustainable model, implementing strategies to mitigate costs and diversify sources of inputs will be essential to ensure the stability of international trade and air transport in the era of renewable fuels.